Complementary Differences in Primary Production and Phenology among Vegetation Types Increase Ecosystem Resilience to Climate Change and Grazing Pressure in an Iconic Mediterranean Ecosystem

Plant primary production is a key factor in ecosystem dynamics. In environments with high climatic variability such as the Mediterranean region, plant shows strong seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations, which both drive interplay herbivore grazing. Knowledge on responses of different vegetation types to rainfall grazing pressure by wild domestic ungulates necessary starting point for sustainable management these ecosystems. this work we combine 15 year series remote sensing data (NDVI) meteorological (daily precipitation data) ungulate abundance (annual counts four species ungulates: red deer, fallow cattle, horses) an iconic protected area (the Doñana National Park, SW Spain) (i) estimate impact intra- variation production, each main types; (ii) evaluate potential policy (i.e., management) strategies under expected climate change scenarios. Our results show that differed strongly their phenology (a surrogate effect climatology development), water availability (rainfall accumulated until phenological peak), pressure. Although density linear, negative three types, differences among increase resilience climatological Such may, however, be reduced conditions predicted models, if moderate reduction levels combines densities ungulates, resulting important reductions may compromise regeneration, leading irreversible degradation. New taking advantage habitat heterogeneity alternation, more flexible stocking rates, redistribution units should considered mitigate effects. The use available techniques combination statistical models represents valuable tool developing, monitoring, refining strategies.